Oxford, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

911
FXUS64 KMEG 101110
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
610 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of eastern Arkansas,
  and portions of northwest Mississippi and West Tennessee into
  Friday. Heat index values are expected to range between 105 and
  109 degrees.

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms persists
  each day through Saturday, particularly for areas along and
  north of the I-40 corridor. Damaging wind gusts are the primary
  concern with a secondary threat of flooding.

- High pressure will build over the Plains next week, keeping
  temperatures in the Mid-South near normal. An incoming easterly
  wave by mid-week is expected to increase the potential for
  isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

00Z upper air analysis this evening showed northwest flow aloft
present across portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys
and the Tennessee Valley. GOES Water Vapor satellite trends show
a weakening MCS over the region with some remnant outflow
dominant storms over portions of West Tennessee. Temperatures
have fallen back into the lower to middle 70s where showers and
thunderstorms have occurred. Elsewhere, warm and muggy conditions
persist with temperatures in the 80s.

Regional WSR-88D radar trends showed additional convection
developing over East Central Missouri late this evening. However,
latest mesoanalysis shows a somewhat worked over atmosphere with
poor mid-level lapse rates, decreased MLCAPE, increasing
convective inhibition, and weak shear. Latest CAMs indicate some
of this activity may attempt to drop into northern sections of
the Mid-South towards daybreak with the probabilities of this
activity expected to remain sub-severe overnight.

Any convective activity during the day on Friday will likely be
influenced by leftover outflow boundaries from the overnight
convection and differential heating as another subtle shortwave
in northwest flow aloft moves across the Mid-South. Weak
shortwave ridging will build in Friday afternoon before another
round of showers and thunderstorms drop into the same areas
Friday night. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall will remain the
threats for any stronger thunderstorms. Heat will continue to be
an issue on Friday as temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s
along and west of the Mississippi and combine with dewpoints in
the mid 70s to produce heat index values between 105 to
109 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM
Friday across this aforementioned area.

The wet and unsettled pattern will continue this weekend and will
remain favorable for nocturnal MCSs and resultant MCVs to produce
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-
South. Overall shear is expected to remain on the low side and
with sufficient instability conditions will remain conducive for
damaging winds. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
northwest Tennessee, portions of the Missouri Bootheel and
extreme northeast Arkansas where several rounds of rain are
expected.

Long term model trends continue to indicate a building ridge over
the Northern/Central Plains and the Middle and Upper Midwest next
week. This may help to bring some drier air into portions of the
Mid-South but an eastern fetch of tropical moisture may keep rain
chances occurring daily especially across north Mississippi.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions, outside of thunderstorm activity, will prevail
through the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms currently
developing along and north of I-40 should remain north of MEM,
but have a higher likelihood of impact at JBR and MKL through
midday today. CAMS have backed off on another round of convection
tonight, but will include VCSH groups at JBR and MEM, maintaining
VCTS at MKL.

Southwest winds will gust up to 25 kts in the afternoon hours
across all terminals except TUP as the pressure gradient tightens
slightly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Fire weather conditions remain stable across the Mid-South into
the weekend. Relative humidity levels will stay above 40 percent,
accompanied by light winds and daily opportunities for scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for ARZ009.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020.

TN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     054-055.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ048-049-088.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JDS